Wyoming to Participate in International Study to Learn How Rumors Spread

Nov. 9, 2005 -- Since Halloween has come and gone and April Fool's Day is still months away, everyone believes the e-mail claiming Microsoft will pay $245 for every person to whom it is forwarded must be true ... or is it?

University of Wyoming Associate Professor of Psychology Martin J. Bourgeois says e-mails are the most popular propaganda mechanism for contemporary urban legends. He cites a widespread e-mail forward that claims Hotmail is shutting down as further proof.

Bourgeois has teamed up with researchers at New York’s Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT) and the University of Southern Australia to find out how urban legends, and rumors in general, spread within groups and also what contributes to their longevity.

"At the individual level, we know a lot about whether someone will pass a rumor along," he says, noting that the study describes a rumor as any statement circulated within a group where there is an element of uncertainty.

"We know if somebody is anxious or uncertain they're more prone to spread a rumor. We also know negative rumors get passed more easily than positive ones. But at the group level, rumors are more difficult to predict because more complex variables are involved," he adds.

It is unfortunate, however, that LIFE cereal's little Mikey had to suffer a premature death from a lethal combination of pop rocks and Coca-Cola prior to the three-year study, which officially launches in January, had a chance to be competed. But did Mikey really die?

Through the project, backed by a $749,000 grant from the National Science Foundation, Bourgeois says the scientists hope to learn how stories such as the fictitious pop rocks and soda death legend survive the difficult test of time.

In the project's first stage, mathematicians at RIT are using mathematical modeling to predict the study's variables. The second stage involves collecting data from participants in New York, Wyoming and Australia. Based on pretest questions, researchers will configure participants into groups that will discuss rumors by e-mail, Bourgeois says. The scientists will examine the group's communication to determine how cultural, regional, political affiliation and disability differences -- and similarities -- affect the spread and longevity of rumors.

"Everybody in Wyoming might hear one rumor and everybody in New York might know the same rumor, but with a twist. We want to know why," he says.

Bourgeois says participants will not be deceived in the study, but the researchers will modify some of the variables to see how the differences affect how quickly rumors spread and how likely people are to believe them.

"During the study, we will be mixing up the communication networks as well as changing variables to make people more or less anxious, or to change the positive-negative nature of the rumor," he says. "We might even manipulate the rumor itself, telling one group President Bush almost flunked out of college and another group it was John Kerry, for example."

Although Bourgeois is most interested in the implications of the study as they relate to psychological theories of group behavior, he says there may be more practical applications.

"If we can find out how these rumors form and proliferate, maybe we can determine ways to counteract them, especially the false ones with negative consequences," he says.

Such information would be especially beneficial to large corporations and government groups, according to Bourgeois. In the meantime, make sure not to swallow that chewing gum, after all, it takes seven years to pass through your system ... or does it?

Posted on Wednesday, November 09, 2005